TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Rory McIlroy: Golf Majors in 2026
Total volume:
$31,499
Volume 24h:
$592
1,053%
Liquidity:
$0
0%
Open interest:
$16,161
3%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Rory McIlroy will win golf major championships during the 2026 season. Kalshi markets focus on specific win thresholds (2, 3, or 4 majors), while Predict markets ask whether McIlroy will win at least one major championship. The group requires reconciliation of conflicting threshold definitions across platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents three overlapping threshold conditions (2, 3, and 4 majors) without clear market delineation, while Predict establishes a single binary threshold of at least 1 major championship win in 2026.Hero Tip:
Clarify with Kalshi whether these are three separate markets or conditions within one market. Use Predict's at-least-1-major definition as your baseline. If Kalshi markets are separate, each resolves independently based on its stated threshold. Monitor McIlroy's major wins throughout 2026 against both the 1-major and higher thresholds to track divergent payoff scenarios.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Three threshold-based conditions listed: exactly 4 majors resolves Yes, at least 3 majors resolves Yes, at least 2 majors resolves Yes. These overlap logically (if 4 majors won, all three conditions are true). Unclear whether these are separate markets or a single market with multiple resolution paths. Key quote: 'If Rory McIlroy wins exactly 4 golf major championships in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Rory McIlroy wins at least 3 golf major championships in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Rory McIlroy wins at least 2 golf major championships in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Predict: Single binary outcome: at least 1 major championship win = Yes, otherwise No. Clear, unambiguous threshold with detailed edge case handling (playoffs, co-champions, cancellations). Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the listed player wins at least one of the four major championships in 2026 (The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship). Otherwise, it will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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