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405,232

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Rory McIlroy: Golf Majors in 2026
kalshi
predict

Rory McIlroy: Golf Majors in 2026

Volume:
$382,399

Justin Rose

 - Predict

Justin Rose - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 19, 2026

Closed: Jul 20, 7:59 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Justin Rose

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
$915
$1,366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Ludvig Aberg

View
100%
Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢
—
$3,993
$2,104
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Chris Gotterup

View
100%
Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢
—
$3,993
$1,655
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Xander Schauffele

View
100%
Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢
—
$3,944
$1,080
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Tommy Fleetwood

View
100%
Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢
—
$2,898
$874
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Collin Morikawa

View
100%
Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢
—
$3,967
$575
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Jon Rahm

View
17%
Yes 17¢No 83¢
—
$1,138
$111,291
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Scottie Scheffler

View
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢
—
$9,202
$23,084
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Bryson DeChambeau

View
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢
—
$10,274
$180,741
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

2+ golf major championship wins

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32,256
N/A
N/A
$10,297
Settled
No
predict

Rory Mcllroy

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$10,749
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4 golf major championship wins

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$10,600
N/A
N/A
$1,808
Settled
No
kalshi

3+ golf major championship wins

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,027
N/A
N/A
$5,042
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Intro

This market tracks whether Rory McIlroy will win multiple golf major championships during the 2026 season. The aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Predict shows a 50.6% probability that McIlroy wins at least 3 majors in 2026. The resolution source defines success as McIlroy capturing three or more major titles during the year. Watch the major championship schedule throughout 2026, particularly the outcomes at each of golf's four majors, to gauge McIlroy's trajectory toward the three-win threshold by the end of the season.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi presents three overlapping threshold conditions (2, 3, and 4 majors) without clear market delineation, while Predict establishes a single binary threshold of at least 1 major championship win in 2026.Hero tip: Clarify with Kalshi whether these are three separate markets or conditions within one market. Use Predict's at-least-1-major definition as your baseline. If Kalshi markets are separate, each resolves independently based on its stated threshold. Monitor McIlroy's major wins throughout 2026 against both the 1-major and higher thresholds to track divergent payoff scenarios.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Three threshold-based conditions listed: exactly 4 majors resolves Yes, at least 3 majors resolves Yes, at least 2 majors resolves Yes. These overlap logically (if 4 majors won, all three conditions are true). Unclear whether these are separate markets or a single market with multiple resolution paths. Key quote: 'If Rory McIlroy wins exactly 4 golf major championships in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Rory McIlroy wins at least 3 golf major championships in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Rory McIlroy wins at least 2 golf major championships in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Predict: Single binary outcome: at least 1 major championship win = Yes, otherwise No. Clear, unambiguous threshold with detailed edge case handling (playoffs, co-champions, cancellations). Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the listed player wins at least one of the four major championships in 2026 (The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship). Otherwise, it will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

A golf major refers to one of the four annual major championship tournaments officially designated by the sport's governing bodies: The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and The Open Championship. Resolution is based on McIlroy's performance in these tournaments during 2026. The first market resolves Yes if he wins at least two majors. The second market resolves Yes if he wins at least three majors. The third market resolves Yes if he wins exactly all four majors in a single calendar year.

Predict

What: This market is intended to predict which of the top PGA Tour players will win any of the four major championships during the 2026 season. Why: It is important for golf enthusiasts to gauge the likelihood of top players achieving a major victory, providing valuable insights into player form, tournament dynamics, and overall season narratives. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player wins at least one of the four major championships in 2026 (The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "win" is defined as the player being declared the official champion of the tournament after any playoffs or official rulings. Shared victories (e.g., due to ties not resolved by playoffs) will count as a win for resolution purposes if the player is listed as a co-champion in official results. If a major tournament is canceled or not held in 2026 for any reason (e.g., due to unforeseen events), it will not count toward any player's win count, and resolution will proceed based on the remaining majors. The official resolution source will be the PGA Tour's official website (pgatour.com) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for Rory McIlroy's major championship performance in 2026 across Kalshi and Predict. It displays consensus probability estimates, cumulative trading volume of $382,399, and 24-hour activity of $1,000 to reflect how prediction market participants collectively assess his likelihood of winning majors. The cross-platform view lets you compare how different markets price the same outcome, revealing where consensus is strongest and where divergence exists among traders.

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Predict operate independently from traditional sportsbooks, often reflecting different trader bases, liquidity patterns, and risk appetites. While sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, prediction markets aggregate decentralized belief through continuous trading. Comparing the two reveals whether professional bettors, casual traders, or informed insiders view McIlroy's 2026 major prospects differently. Prediction market prices tend to be more responsive to real-time information and less constrained by bookmaker risk management.

Key catalysts include McIlroy's performance in warm-up tournaments, injury announcements, major championship results as they occur throughout 2026, and shifts in his competitive form relative to rivals like Scottie Scheffler. Course conditions, equipment changes, and coaching adjustments can also influence trader sentiment. Major tournament outcomes will create the largest price swings, especially victories or near-misses at the Masters, U.S. Open, Open Championship, and PGA Championship. Real-time odds will tighten as each major approaches and resolve fully after the final 2026 major concludes.