TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Rockets vs. Warriors
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 5 at 10:00PM ET: If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to "Rockets". If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's markets resolve YES for ANY outcome (either team winning), making them logically incoherent and unresolvable. Polymarket's markets use standard binary or outcome-specific resolution tied to game results, final scores, and official NBA box scores. The two platforms are fundamentally incompatible.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi's moneyline market entirely — it is logically broken and will resolve YES regardless of outcome. All meaningful trading should occur on Polymarket, where resolution is tied to actual game results, spreads, totals, and player statistics from official NBA sources.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's moneyline market (items 1-2) states 'If Golden State wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Houston wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction where the market resolves YES for all possible outcomes, making it unresolvable. No other platform in this group uses this flawed logic.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard sports betting logic: Polymarket's markets resolve based on actual game outcomes, final scores, spreads, totals, and official NBA box scores. The moneyline resolves to 'Rockets' or 'Warriors' based on winner; spreads resolve based on point differential; totals resolve based on combined score; player props resolve based on individual statistics from NBA.com. All resolution sources are clearly specified and mutually exclusive outcomes are properly defined.
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