TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Rockets vs. Nuggets
Volume:
$4,883,645
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the NBA game between the Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets scheduled for March 11, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline, spreads, totals, player props (points, rebounds, assists), and first-half variants across both Polymarket and Kalshi platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi employs independent team point-total thresholds that do not map to standard game outcomes (winner, spread, total), while Polymarket uses outcome-based and player-performance-based resolution criteria. Both platforms reference the same game and official NBA box score, but the logical frameworks are fundamentally different.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's 18 markets are scoring thresholds, not game outcome markets. A Kalshi Yes resolution (e.g., Denver >115.5 points) does not predict or require a Nuggets win. Cross-platform arbitrage risk exists if you assume correlation between Kalshi thresholds and Polymarket spreads or moneyline. Always resolve each platform independently against its stated criteria.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 18 markets resolve Yes if Denver scores above one of eight thresholds (103.5, 106.5, 109.5, 112.5, 115.5, 118.5, 121.5, 124.5, 127.5 points) OR Houston scores above one of nine thresholds (100.5, 103.5, 106.5, 109.5, 112.5, 115.5, 118.5, 121.5, 124.5 points). No reference to game winner, spread, or total. Multiple markets can resolve Yes simultaneously.
- Polymarket: Markets resolve based on: (1) Moneyline: Rockets win vs Nuggets win; (2) Spreads: Nuggets by 6+, 7+, or 8+ points; (3) Totals: Combined 228+, 229+, 230+, 231+, or 232+ points; (4) Player props: Individual points, rebounds, assists vs explicit thresholds; (5) First-half variants of spreads and totals. All tied to official NBA box score and game outcome.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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