TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Rockets vs. Magic
Volume:
$4,556,774
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers an NBA game between the Houston Rockets and Orlando Magic scheduled for February 26, 2025 at 7:30 PM ET. Markets span moneyline, spreads, totals, half-time outcomes, and individual player prop bets (points, rebounds, assists) across Polymarket and Kalshi platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's second-half market contains a logical impossibility: it states that if Houston wins, Tie wins, or Orlando wins, the market resolves to Yes—meaning all three mutually exclusive outcomes resolve to Yes simultaneously. Additionally, Kalshi provides no edge-case handling (postponement, cancellation, overtime treatment), while Polymarket defines comprehensive rules for 40 markets. The two platforms are not resolving the same event.Hero Tip:
Treat Polymarket and Kalshi as separate, non-fungible markets. Polymarket's 40-market suite is fully specified and auditable against official NBA box scores. Kalshi's single market is unresolvable as written. Before trading Kalshi, demand clarification: (1) Does a second-half tie resolve to Yes or No? (2) Does the market cover regulation-only or include overtime? (3) What happens if the game is postponed or canceled? Until Kalshi corrects the logical contradiction, assume the market will be voided or arbitrarily settled.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: 40 distinct, fully specified markets covering moneyline, spreads (multiple thresholds), totals (multiple thresholds), half-time outcomes, and 20+ player props. Each market explicitly handles postponement (remains open), cancellation (resolves 50-50), overtime inclusion, and player inactivity (resolves No). Resolution source: official NBA box score on NBA.com. Example: 'Rockets vs. Magic: If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to Rockets. If the Magic win, the market will resolve to Magic. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.'
- Kalshi: Single market on second-half regulation outcome with three stated conditions: 'If Houston is the winner... then Yes. If Tie is the result... then Yes. If Orlando is the winner... then Yes.' This is a logical contradiction—all three mutually exclusive outcomes cannot simultaneously resolve to Yes. No mention of postponement, cancellation, overtime, or tie-breaking rules. Market is unresolvable as written.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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