TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Rockets vs. Bulls
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 23 at 8:00PM ET: If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to "Rockets". If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves on second-half regulation results only (with all three outcomes resolving YES), while Polymarket resolves on full-game final score including overtime. This creates a fundamental logical contradiction: Kalshi's market cannot distinguish between outcomes, making it unresolvable as a prediction market.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi's market entirely — it is logically broken. All three possible second-half outcomes (Chicago win, tie, Houston win) resolve to YES, meaning the market will always resolve YES regardless of what happens. Polymarket's markets are resolvable and use standard NBA resolution (full game, official box score, overtime included).Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on second-half regulation results only. All three possible outcomes (Chicago winner, tie, Houston winner) resolve to YES, creating a logical contradiction that makes the market unresolvable. Quote: 'If Chicago is the winner... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie is the result... then the market resolves to Yes. If Houston is the winner... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard NBA resolution: All markets resolve on final full-game score including overtime, determined from official NBA.com box score. Moneyline resolves to Rockets or Bulls based on winner. Spreads and totals use cumulative final score. Quote: 'The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods' and 'The resolution source will be the official NBA box score as published on NBA.com.'
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