TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Most liquid price source available for Relay governance token at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launchCore resolution logic:
- Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to qualify as a launch
- FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price from the most liquid source
- Resolution timestamp is 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch (not 24 hours, but calendar day boundary)
- Market resolves YES if FDV strictly exceeds the threshold specified in the market title
- Market resolves NO if FDV is at or below the threshold, or if no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- No Launch by Deadline: If Relay does not launch a publicly tradable governance token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to NO regardless of threshold
- Illiquid or Non-Transferable Token: If the token exists but is not actively, publicly transferable and tradable, it does not qualify as a launch and markets resolve NO
- FDV Exactly at Threshold: Markets require FDV to be GREATER THAN the threshold; if FDV equals the threshold exactly, the market resolves NO
- Multiple Liquidity Sources: If multiple price sources exist at 4:00 PM ET, the most liquid source is used; liquidity is determined by trading volume and bid-ask spread
Timing:
Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day immediately following Relay's token launch. If launch occurs on Day X, resolution is measured on Day X+1 at 4:00 PM ET. Deadline for launch is December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.Follow the signals, not the noise
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