TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Red Wings vs. Rangers
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 4 at 12:30PM ET: If the Red Wings win, the market will resolve to "Red Wings". If the Rangers win, the market will resolve to "Rangers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi settles on goal-differential thresholds (1.5+ or 2.5+ goals by either team), while Polymarket settles on moneyline winner and total goals scored. The platforms use fundamentally different resolution metrics for the same game.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi, your outcome depends on the margin of victory (1.5 or 2.5+ goals), not just who wins. On Polymarket, moneyline bets care only about the winner, and total bets care only about combined goals. A 2-1 Red Wings win resolves YES on Kalshi (over 1.5 goal margin) but does not trigger the spread market on Polymarket (which requires 2+ goal margin). Ensure your bet aligns with the resolution metric you intend.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on goal differential thresholds. Markets trigger if either team wins by over 1.5 goals OR over 2.5 goals. Key quote: 'If Detroit wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If New York R wins by over 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers three separate resolution types: moneyline (Red Wings vs. Rangers winner only), and two total-goals markets (Over/Under 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 combined goals). Spread market resolves Red Wings if they win by 2+ goals, otherwise Rangers. Key quote: 'If the Red Wings win, the market will resolve to Red Wings' and 'This market will resolve to Red Wings if the Red Wings win the game by 2 or more goals.'
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