Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms align on the core match outcome (Recoleta win, Cuenca win, or draw) determined after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with CONMEBOL as the authoritative source. Kalshi's market structure differs in presentation but covers the same outcome space.
Primary resolution logic:
CONMEBOL official statistics (conmebol.com/sudamericana); fallback to credible reporting consensus if official stats not published within 2 hours of match conclusion
Core resolution logic:
Match outcome is determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only; extra time and penalties are excluded
Three mutually exclusive outcomes: Recoleta FC win, CD Cuenca win, or draw
Resolution uses official CONMEBOL match statistics as primary source
If match is postponed, all markets remain open until the rescheduled match is completed
If match is canceled entirely with no makeup game, draw market (Polymarket) resolves Yes; win markets resolve No
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Postponement: If the match is postponed, all markets remain open and unresolved until the rescheduled match is completed and final statistics are available
Cancellation without makeup: If the match is canceled with no makeup game scheduled, Polymarket draw market resolves Yes and both win markets resolve No. Kalshi's market structure (Yes for any outcome) would technically resolve Yes
Source delay: If CONMEBOL does not publish official statistics within 2 hours after match conclusion, resolution may use consensus from credible reporting sources
Scope clarity: Resolution covers only the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; any match decided in extra time or penalties uses the 90+stoppage result, not the final outcome
Timing:
Resolution occurs after the match concludes and official CONMEBOL statistics are published or credible reporting consensus is established (within 2 hours post-match). Markets remain open if match is postponed until rescheduled match is completed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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