TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid - Halftime Result
Volume:
$38,310
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the halftime result of the Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid La Liga match scheduled for March 22, 2026. Markets track which team is leading (or if it's a draw) after 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The group includes markets on Kalshi and Polymarket with overlapping but structurally different outcome definitions.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical tautology: all three mutually exclusive halftime outcomes (Real Madrid win, Atletico win, Draw) are mapped to Yes resolution, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket uses three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive logic.Hero Tip:
Do not trade or settle Kalshi's market as written. The market structure violates logical consistency and cannot distinguish between outcomes. Polymarket's three-market framework is the only resolvable structure. Escalate Kalshi to compliance for correction or cancellation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Single market with three Yes conditions: 'If Atletico wins... Yes. If Real Madrid wins... Yes. If Tie... Yes.' This is a logical contradiction—every possible outcome resolves to Yes, making it impossible to determine a meaningful market outcome or settle positions based on actual halftime result.
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: (1) Real Madrid leading at halftime (Yes if Real Madrid ahead, No otherwise), (2) Draw at halftime (Yes if 0-0 or equal score, No otherwise), (3) Atletico leading at halftime (Yes if Atletico ahead, No otherwise). Each market has clear Yes and No conditions with mutually exclusive logic. Resolution source is official governing body statistics or credible consensus within 24 hours post-match.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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