Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Polymarket and Kalshi both resolve based on the official match outcome (win, loss, or draw) after 90 minutes plus stoppage time on March 22, 2026, with the same primary source (La Liga official statistics) and identical handling of postponements and cancellations.
Primary resolution logic:
Official La Liga statistics as recognized by the governing body or event organizers; if unavailable within 2 hours post-match, credible reporting consensus may be used.
Core resolution logic:
Polymarket markets resolve YES/NO based on whether Real Madrid wins, Atlético wins, or the match ends in a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Kalshi markets resolve YES if any of the three outcomes (Real Madrid win, Atlético win, or draw) occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Both platforms exclude extra time and penalties from consideration.
If the match is postponed, both platforms keep markets open until the match is completed.
If the match is canceled with no make-up game, Polymarket resolves the win markets to NO and the draw market to YES; Kalshi resolves all outcome markets to YES (since one outcome will have occurred in the original scheduled context or the cancellation is treated as a non-event).
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Match Postponement: If the match scheduled for March 22, 2026 is postponed, both platforms keep their markets open until the match is completed. Resolution occurs upon the rescheduled match outcome, not the original date.
Match Cancellation Without Makeup: If the match is canceled entirely with no makeup game, Polymarket resolves win markets to NO and draw market to YES. Kalshi's outcome markets all resolve to YES as a technical matter (the cancellation satisfies the condition that one outcome occurred or the match did not proceed as scheduled).
Resolution Source Fallback: If La Liga does not publish official statistics within 2 hours after match conclusion, both platforms permit resolution based on consensus of credible reporting sources.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official La Liga announcement of the final match result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, or upon credible reporting consensus if official statistics are delayed beyond 2 hours post-match.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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