Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All three Polymarket markets and the Kalshi platform apply identical resolution logic: they resolve based on the official 90-minute match outcome (plus stoppage time) as recognized by La Liga, with consistent handling of postponements and cancellations across platforms.
Primary resolution logic:
Official La Liga statistics and match records (laliga.com), with fallback to consensus of credible reporting if official statistics are not published within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Core resolution logic:
The draw market (Polymarket) resolves YES if the match ends in a draw within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, NO otherwise. If canceled with no makeup game, it resolves YES.
The Real Madrid win market (Polymarket) resolves YES if Real Madrid CF wins within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, NO otherwise. If canceled with no makeup game, it resolves NO.
The Real Betis win market (Polymarket) resolves YES if Real Betis Balompié wins within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, NO otherwise. If canceled with no makeup game, it resolves NO.
Exactly one of the three outcome markets will resolve YES (draw, Real Madrid win, or Real Betis win).
If the match is postponed, all markets remain open until the match is completed.
Resolution scope is limited to the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Match Cancellation: If the match is canceled entirely with no makeup game scheduled, the draw market resolves YES while both team-win markets resolve NO. This creates an asymmetry by design.
Postponement: If the match is postponed, all markets remain open and unresolved until the match is completed on its rescheduled date.
Source Timing: If La Liga does not publish official statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, resolution may be based on consensus of credible reporting sources instead.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official La Liga publication of final match statistics, or within 2 hours after match conclusion via credible reporting consensus if official statistics are delayed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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