TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo
Volume:
$1,527,726
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a La Liga soccer match between Real Betis Balompié and RC Celta de Vigo scheduled for March 15, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess the outcome (win/loss/draw) based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation and postponement handling differs materially between platforms. Kalshi does not explicitly address cancellation, while Polymarket's three markets have conflicting cancellation outcomes: the draw market resolves Yes on cancellation, but both win markets resolve No.Hero Tip:
Traders should not assume these markets are equivalent hedges. The draw market on Polymarket has opposite cancellation exposure compared to the win markets. If the match is canceled without a makeup, Polymarket draw resolves Yes (profitable for Yes holders) while Polymarket win markets resolve No (loss for Yes holders). Kalshi's cancellation protocol is undefined, creating settlement risk.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Market structure presents three mutually exclusive outcomes (Celta win, Betis win, Tie), each resolving to Yes if true. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided. Assumes match will be completed. Key quote: 'If Celta Vigo wins the Real Betis vs Celta Vigo professional La Liga soccer game originally scheduled for Mar 15, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with asymmetric cancellation rules. Draw market resolves Yes if canceled with no makeup. Both win markets (Celta and Betis) resolve No if canceled with no makeup. Postponement keeps markets open until completion. Key quotes: Draw - 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes.' Win markets - 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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