Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi use identical resolution logic: the market resolves based on the official match outcome (win, loss, or draw) after 90 minutes plus stoppage time on April 24, 2026, with the same primary resolution source (official governing body statistics or credible consensus reporting).
Primary resolution logic:
Official Bundesliga statistics as recognized by the governing body; if unavailable within 2 hours post-match, credible reporting consensus.
Core resolution logic:
RB Leipzig Win market resolves YES if and only if RB Leipzig wins within 90 minutes plus stoppage time; resolves NO otherwise or if game is canceled with no make-up.
1. FC Union Berlin Win market resolves YES if and only if Union Berlin wins within 90 minutes plus stoppage time; resolves NO otherwise or if game is canceled with no make-up.
Draw market resolves YES if the match ends in a draw within 90 minutes plus stoppage time; resolves YES if game is canceled entirely with no make-up; resolves NO otherwise.
Exactly one of the three outcomes (Leipzig win, Union Berlin win, or draw) will resolve YES across the market group.
Extra time and penalties are explicitly excluded from resolution scope.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Game Postponement: If the match is postponed, all markets remain open until the game is completed. Resolution occurs based on the rescheduled match outcome.
Game Cancellation Without Make-up: If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up scheduled, the Draw market resolves YES and both Win markets resolve NO.
Resolution Source Delay: If official Bundesliga statistics are not published within 2 hours after match conclusion, resolution may use consensus of credible reporting sources instead.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official announcement of the final match result by Bundesliga or governing body, or within 2 hours post-match via credible reporting consensus if official statistics are delayed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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