TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Raptors vs. Grizzlies
Volume:
$3,911,732
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the NBA game between the Toronto Raptors and Memphis Grizzlies scheduled for April 3, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. The market resolves based on which team wins the game, with the final score including any overtime periods determining the outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome (Memphis wins OR Toronto wins), making it logically incoherent and fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket's markets correctly distinguish between Raptors win, Grizzlies win, and other outcomes (spreads, totals, player props) with proper binary or categorical logic.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi's moneyline market entirely — it is broken and will resolve YES regardless of the game result. Trade only on Polymarket's markets, which have coherent resolution logic: Raptors win resolves to 'Raptors', Grizzlies win resolves to 'Grizzlies', and all prop markets use standard over/under thresholds with proper tie-breaking and cancellation clauses.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Both Kalshi markets (items 1–2) state 'If Memphis wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Toronto wins... then the market resolves to Yes', creating a logical contradiction where the market resolves YES for all possible outcomes. This violates basic binary market structure and makes the market unresolvable.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard market logic: Polymarket's moneyline (items 3–4) correctly resolves to 'Raptors' if Raptors win and 'Grizzlies' if Grizzlies win, with a 50-50 split only if the game is canceled with no make-up. All 77 additional Polymarket markets (spreads, totals, player props, first-half markets) use coherent binary or categorical logic with consistent tie-breaking, postponement, and cancellation rules tied to official NBA box scores.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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