TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Raptors vs. Bulls
Volume:
$3,351,875
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 18 at 8:00PM ET: If the Raptors win, the market will resolve to "Raptors". If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different market structures. Polymarket offers traditional binary markets (moneyline, spread, over/under) with unified game-level resolution, while Kalshi offers only individual team point-total markets without corresponding opponent or combined-total markets, creating structural incompleteness on the Kalshi side.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Polymarket, you can hedge or arbitrage across moneyline, spread, and total markets with full coverage. On Kalshi, you can only bet on individual team point totals (Toronto or Chicago points above various thresholds) — you cannot directly bet on the spread, moneyline, or combined total. This means Kalshi traders cannot fully replicate Polymarket positions and face incomplete market coverage.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Aligned with Kalshi on underlying game resolution (official NBA box score, March 18, 2026, 8:00 PM ET), but Polymarket offers comprehensive market types: moneyline (Raptors vs. Bulls winner), spreads (Raptors -7.5, -4.5, -3.5), over/unders (combined totals at 232.5–237.5 and 1H totals at 113.5–115.5), player props (points, rebounds, assists), and 1H markets. All resolve to official NBA.com box score. Quote: 'The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods' and 'The resolution source will be the official NBA box score as published on NBA.com.'
- Kalshi: Aligned with Polymarket on underlying game resolution (official NBA box score, March 18, 2026) and data source, but Kalshi offers only individual team point-total markets (Toronto points above 108.5–132.5, Chicago points above 101.5–125.5). No moneyline, spread, combined total, or player prop markets are present. This creates a structural divergence: Kalshi cannot settle spread or total markets, and traders cannot construct equivalent hedges. Quote: 'If the number of points scored by Toronto [or Chicago] in the Toronto vs Chicago professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 18, 2026 is Above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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