TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 25 at 7:30PM ET: If the Rangers win, the market will resolve to "Rangers". If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to "Maple Leafs". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi settles on spread/margin outcomes (win-by thresholds), while Polymarket settles on total goals scored (over/under) and moneyline outcomes. The platforms measure fundamentally different aspects of the same game.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi spreads, you are predicting margin of victory (e.g., Rangers win by 2+). If you bet on Polymarket totals, you are predicting combined scoring (e.g., 6+ goals). These outcomes are independent — a high-scoring Rangers blowout could resolve YES on both, but a low-scoring Rangers 2-goal win resolves YES on Kalshi spreads but NO on Polymarket totals. Choose your platform based on whether you want to predict margin or scoring volume.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves exclusively on margin of victory (spread outcomes). All four markets measure whether one team wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals: 'If New York R wins by over 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Toronto wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.' No total-goals or moneyline markets are present.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves on total combined goals (over/under thresholds at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) and moneyline (Rangers vs. Maple Leafs winner), plus one spread market. Example: 'This market will resolve to Over if the Rangers and Maple Leafs combine to score 6 or more goals in this game.' Polymarket includes outcome types (totals, moneyline, spread) that Kalshi does not offer.
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