TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
"Project Hail Mary" Rotten Tomatoes score? (Higher Strikes)
Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Project Hail Mary (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on March 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents 12 overlapping strike-based conditions (thresholds from 45 to 97) that all resolve to YES, creating ambiguity about which threshold defines the market outcome, while Polymarket offers 5 discrete binary markets each with a single specific threshold (93, 94, 95, 96, 97), providing clear one-to-one resolution mapping.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, clarify which threshold actually determines settlement—the platform's rules suggest all 12 conditions resolve YES simultaneously, which is logically impossible for a single market. On Polymarket, each market is independent and unambiguous: bet the specific threshold you believe will be met. Avoid Kalshi until the strike structure is clarified.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi lists 12 separate conditional statements (thresholds: 45, 60, 75, 80, 85, 90, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97), all resolving to YES if met, but does not specify which single threshold defines the market or how overlapping conditions are reconciled. Key quote: 'If Project Hail Mary has a Tomatometer score of above [X] on Mar 23, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes' (repeated 12 times with different X values).
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 5 independent binary markets, each with a single explicit threshold (at least 93, 94, 95, 96, or 97), each resolving YES or NO based solely on whether the Tomatometer score meets or exceeds that threshold at 10:00 AM ET on March 23, 2026. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes All Critics Tomatometer score for Project Hail Mary (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on March 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
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