TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Philadelphia Union vs. San Jose Earthquakes
kalshi
polymarket

Philadelphia Union vs. San Jose Earthquakes

Volume:
$1,228,946

San Jose

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 8, 2026

Closed: Mar 7, 10:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

San Jose

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$160,648
N/A
N/A
$107,871
Settled
Yes
polymarket

San Jose Earthquakes

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$54,901
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Philadelphia Union

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$906,366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Philadelphia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$73,191
N/A
N/A
$47,444
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Philadelphia Union vs. San Jose Earthquakes)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,179
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,661
N/A
N/A
$13,472
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers three linked prediction markets on the March 7, 2026 MLS match between Philadelphia Union and San Jose Earthquakes. Markets track whether San Jose wins, Philadelphia wins, or the match ends in a draw, all measured at the conclusion of 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Cancellation handling diverges between platforms. Kalshi's structure creates logical impossibility (all three mutually exclusive outcomes cannot all resolve Yes). Polymarket provides explicit, mutually exclusive cancellation rules.Hero tip: Polymarket's cancellation logic is sound and tradeable. Kalshi's cancellation clause is unenforceable as written. If you hold Kalshi positions, assume cancellation will trigger a force-majeure ruling or indefinite hold, not the stated Yes resolution. Polymarket traders should note that cancellation = Yes on Draw, No on both Win markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All three outcome markets (San Jose win, Tie, Philadelphia win) resolve to Yes if their respective outcome occurs. Cancellation handling is not explicitly stated, but the structure implies all three would resolve Yes if game is canceled—a logical impossibility. Quote: 'If [outcome] wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three separate markets with explicit cancellation rules: San Jose Win resolves No on cancellation, Philadelphia Win resolves No on cancellation, Draw resolves Yes on cancellation. This ensures mutual exclusivity. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' (Win markets) vs. 'this market will resolve Yes' (Draw market).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.