TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducks
Volume:
$1,283,019
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
A men's college basketball game between Penn State Nittany Lions and Oregon Ducks scheduled for February 14, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. Markets across platforms cover the moneyline winner, point spread outcomes, and total points over/under thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's moneyline market contains a logical contradiction where both possible outcomes (Penn State win and Oregon win) are mapped to the same resolution (Yes), making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket markets are internally consistent but fragmented across multiple SKUs with different thresholds.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi moneyline market. It will be unresolvable regardless of game outcome. Trade Polymarket's moneyline for winner determination, use -5.5 or -6.5 spreads based on your line preference, and select the 146.5 or 147.5 total based on your probability assessment. All Polymarket markets include a 50-50 cancellation clause if the game is canceled with no makeup.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Moneyline market resolves to Yes for both Penn State win and Oregon win outcomes. Key Quote: 'If Penn St. wins the Penn St. at Oregon men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Feb 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Oregon wins the Penn St. at Oregon men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Feb 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility—the market cannot distinguish between the two outcomes.
- Polymarket: Moneyline resolves to 'Penn State Nittany Lions' or 'Oregon Ducks' with clear binary logic. Spreads at -5.5 and -6.5 both resolve to Oregon if they cover, otherwise Penn State. Totals at 146.5 and 147.5 resolve Over if combined score meets or exceeds threshold, Under otherwise. All markets include postponement continuation and 50-50 cancellation clause. Key Quote: 'If the Penn State Nittany Lions win, the market will resolve to Penn State Nittany Lions. If the Oregon Ducks win, the market will resolve to Oregon Ducks.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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