TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Penguins vs. Senators
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 26 at 7:00PM ET: If the Penguins win, the market will resolve to "Penguins". If the Senators win, the market will resolve to "Senators". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi settles on a binary outcome (either team wins), while Polymarket offers multiple markets with different settlement logics including moneyline, spread, and over/under totals with varying thresholds. The platforms diverge on scope and market structure rather than on a single shared event.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting simply on which team wins the game. On Polymarket, you have granular options: you can bet on the winner, the margin of victory, or total goals scored. A Kalshi YES bet (either team wins) will always resolve, but Polymarket's over/under markets depend on specific goal thresholds (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) that may not align with your directional view. Choose your platform based on whether you want a simple moneyline or more nuanced exposure.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi offers only a binary moneyline market where the market resolves YES if either the Penguins or Senators wins the game. The resolution rule states 'If PIT Penguins wins... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If OTT Senators wins... then the market resolves to Yes,' meaning every realistic outcome (either team winning) triggers a YES resolution. This is a winner-take-all structure with no spread or total goals component.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers four separate markets covering moneyline (Penguins vs. Senators), spread (Senators -1.5), and four over/under totals (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 goals). Each market has independent settlement logic: the moneyline resolves to the winning team, the spread resolves based on margin of victory ('Senators win by 2 or more goals'), and each over/under resolves based on combined goals scored ('7 or more goals' for the 6.5 line, '8 or more' for the 7.5 line, etc.). This multi-market structure allows bettors to express different views on the game outcome.
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