TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Penguins vs. Capitals
Volume:
$1,436,131
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
On April 12, 2025 at 3:00 PM ET, the Pittsburgh Penguins will face the Washington Capitals in an NHL regular season game. Markets track both the moneyline winner and combined goal totals across multiple thresholds (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5), with all outcomes determined by final regulation + overtime + shootout scoring.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different event types. Kalshi settles on moneyline outcome (either team winning), while Polymarket settles on total goals scored (over/under) and point spreads. These are incompatible resolution bases for the same game.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's market will resolve YES regardless of final score as long as one team wins (which always happens). Polymarket's markets resolve based on combined goals or margin of victory. Do not assume these markets move together—a Penguins win could resolve YES on Kalshi but Under on Polymarket's totals markets depending on the score.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi resolves to YES if either the Penguins or Capitals wins the game. The market statement reads 'If PIT Penguins wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If WSH Capitals wins...then the market resolves to Yes,' meaning the market always resolves YES regardless of outcome. This is a moneyline/binary winner-take-all structure with no alternative resolution path.
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket offers six distinct markets—five total-goals markets (O/U 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) and one moneyline (Penguins vs. Capitals), plus two spread markets (Capitals -1.5, Capitals -2.5). Each resolves on different criteria: totals resolve on combined goals scored, moneyline resolves on which team wins, and spreads resolve on margin of victory. These are incompatible settlement bases.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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