TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Penguins vs. Blues
Volume:
$1,759,846
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
On April 14 at 9:30 PM ET, the Pittsburgh Penguins face the St. Louis Blues in an NHL matchup. Markets will resolve based on the final score including overtime and shootouts (with one goal added to the winning team's total in shootout scenarios). Multiple over/under totals (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 goals combined) allow traders to bet on game scoring intensity alongside the moneyline winner.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes. Kalshi resolves on goal-differential thresholds (1.5+ or 2.5+ goal margins) regardless of winner, while Polymarket resolves on moneyline winner, over/under totals, and spread outcomes. The platforms cannot produce aligned results from the same game outcome.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on margin-of-victory thresholds (either team winning by 1.5+ or 2.5+ goals). On Polymarket, you are betting on winner, total goals, and spread. A Penguins 3-1 win resolves YES on Kalshi (Pittsburgh wins by over 1.5 goals) but resolves to Penguins on Polymarket moneyline and Penguins on the spread. A 2-1 Penguins win resolves NO on Kalshi (not over 1.5 goals for either team) but resolves to Penguins on Polymarket. Do not assume cross-platform hedging will work.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi resolves YES if either team wins by over 1.5 goals OR over 2.5 goals, creating four separate YES conditions based purely on margin thresholds, not on winner identity. Key quote: 'If St. Louis wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Pittsburgh wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket resolves on moneyline winner (Penguins or Blues), over/under total goals (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 thresholds), and spread outcomes (Blues -1.5 or Penguins -1.5), with each market type resolving independently to a named outcome. Key quote: 'If the Penguins win, the market will resolve to Penguins. If the Blues win, the market will resolve to Blues' and 'This market will resolve to Blues if the Blues win the game by 2 or more goals.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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