TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Pelicans vs. Kings
Volume:
$4,062,714
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the NBA game between the New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings scheduled for March 5, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline, spreads, totals, player props (points, rebounds, assists), and first-half variants across Polymarket and Kalshi platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses standard sportsbook spread thresholds (-4.5 and -5.5), while Kalshi offers 11 granular binary outcomes covering point differentials from 1.5 to 19.5 points. This creates different resolution paths for the same underlying game outcome.Hero Tip:
Track the final margin precisely. A 5-point Pelicans win triggers YES on Polymarket's -4.5 spread but NO on -5.5. On Kalshi, only markets with thresholds at or below 5 points resolve YES. Use this granularity for precise hedging but verify the exact final score and margin before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Moneyline resolves to winner (Pelicans or Kings). Spread: Pelicans (-4.5) resolves YES if Pelicans win by 5+ points, otherwise NO. Spread: Pelicans (-5.5) resolves YES if Pelicans win by 6+ points, otherwise NO. Totals (231.5, 232.5, 233.5, 234.5, 235.5) resolve Over if combined score meets or exceeds threshold+1, Under otherwise. First-half moneyline and spreads (-2.5, -3.5) apply halftime score only. Player props resolve Yes if stat exceeds threshold (e.g., Zion >22.5 points), No if at or below. All markets include postponement hold and 50-50 cancellation clause.
- Kalshi: 11 binary spread outcomes: Sacramento wins by >2.5, >5.5, >8.5, >11.5 points (4 markets); New Orleans wins by >1.5, >4.5, >7.5, >10.5, >13.5, >16.5, >19.5 points (7 markets). Each resolves independently to Yes or No based on final margin. No moneyline, totals, player props, or first-half markets on Kalshi in this dataset. All markets include postponement hold and 50-50 cancellation clause.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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