TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Panthers vs. Canadiens
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 7 at 7:00PM ET: If the Panthers win, the market will resolve to "Panthers". If the Canadiens win, the market will resolve to "Canadiens". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different spread thresholds and market structures. Polymarket offers discrete spread markets at -1.5 goals for each team, while Kalshi offers four separate Yes/No markets based on win-margin thresholds (1.5 and 2.5 goals for each team), creating different settlement outcomes for identical game results.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Polymarket's spread markets, you are betting on a single outcome per market (either team wins by 2+ goals or they don't). On Kalshi, you can bet on four independent margin outcomes simultaneously. A 2-goal Panthers win resolves YES on Kalshi's 'Florida wins by over 1.5' but resolves to 'Panthers' on Polymarket's spread market, but these are logically equivalent. However, Kalshi's four separate markets allow you to hedge or take multiple margin positions that Polymarket's binary spreads do not offer. The moneyline and over/under markets are unified across both platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Aligned with Kalshi on moneyline and over/under logic: resolves based on final score including overtime and shootouts (one goal added to winner in shootout). Diverges on spread structure: offers two discrete binary markets—'Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)' resolves YES if Canadiens win by 2+ goals, otherwise NO; 'Spread: Panthers (-1.5)' resolves YES if Panthers win by 2+ goals, otherwise NO. Each spread market is mutually exclusive within its own market but both can resolve to the same outcome (Panthers) if neither team wins by 2+.
- Kalshi: Aligned with Polymarket on moneyline and over/under logic: resolves based on final score including overtime and shootouts. Diverges on spread structure: offers four independent Yes/No markets based on win margins—'Montreal wins by over 2.5 goals' (Yes if Canadiens +3 or more), 'Montreal wins by over 1.5 goals' (Yes if Canadiens +2 or more), 'Florida wins by over 1.5 goals' (Yes if Panthers +2 or more), 'Florida wins by over 2.5 goals' (Yes if Panthers +3 or more). These four markets are independent and can each resolve Yes or No based on the final margin, allowing multiple simultaneous outcomes.
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