TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Olimpia Milano vs. FC Bayern Munchen
Volume:
$443,818
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market resolves based on the outcome of an Euroleague basketball game between Olimpia Milano and FC Bayern Munchen scheduled for April 9 at 2:30 PM ET. The winner of the game determines the market resolution, with specific provisions for postponement and cancellation scenarios.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic contains a fatal contradiction: it resolves to Yes for both possible outcomes (Olimpia Milano win OR Bayern Munich win), making the market logically unresolvable. Polymarket correctly specifies mutually exclusive outcomes (Olimpia Milano resolves to 'Olimpia Milano', Bayern Munich resolves to 'FC Bayern Munchen'), with clear postponement and cancellation rules.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market. The resolution criteria guarantee a Yes outcome regardless of the actual game result, which violates basic market logic. Polymarket's market is the only tradeable version with proper binary resolution.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier (correct logic): Polymarket specifies mutually exclusive outcomes where the market resolves to the winning team's name, with explicit handling for postponement (market remains open) and cancellation (50-50 split). Key quote: 'If the Olimpia Milano win, the market will resolve to Olimpia Milano. If the FC Bayern Munchen win, the market will resolve to FC Bayern Munchen.'
- Kalshi: Outlier (data integrity failure): Kalshi's resolution criteria state 'If Olimpia Milano wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Bayern Munich wins...then the market resolves to Yes', creating a logical impossibility where both mutually exclusive outcomes trigger the same Yes resolution. Key quote: 'If Olimpia Milano wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Bayern Munich wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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