TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Oilers vs. Kings
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 11 at 4:00PM ET: If the Oilers win, the market will resolve to "Oilers". If the Kings win, the market will resolve to "Kings". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves YES if either team wins (both outcomes trigger YES), making the market logically contradictory. Polymarket offers multiple distinct markets (moneyline, spreads, and over/under totals) that each resolve independently based on game outcome and scoring.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market — it is unresolvable as written because both possible outcomes (Kings win OR Oilers win) trigger YES, leaving no NO resolution path. Polymarket's markets are standard and resolvable: bet the moneyline for winner, spreads for margin, or totals for combined goals.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's market resolves YES if LA Kings wins AND ALSO resolves YES if EDM Oilers wins. This creates a logical contradiction where every possible outcome resolves YES, with no path to NO resolution. The market statement reads: 'If LA Kings wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If EDM Oilers wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers seven independent markets with standard NHL resolution logic. The moneyline resolves to 'Oilers' if Oilers win or 'Kings' if Kings win (50-50 if canceled). Spreads resolve based on margin (Kings -1.5 requires 2+ goal Kings win; Oilers -1.5 requires 2+ goal Oilers win). Over/Under totals (1.5 through 7.5) resolve based on combined goals, with shootout goals counted as +1 to the winner. All markets remain open if postponed and resolve 50-50 if canceled with no makeup.
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