TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Oilers vs. Golden Knights
Volume:
$787,111
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers an NHL matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights scheduled for March 8, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), spread betting (margin of victory), and total goals (over/under), with resolution based on final score including overtime and shootout adjustments.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi employs non-standard margin-of-victory Yes/No markets with overlapping thresholds, while Polymarket uses conventional moneyline, spread, and total markets. The two platforms measure and resolve the same game event using fundamentally different market structures and outcome spaces.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets are fungible. Kalshi's four margin markets all resolve Yes if their respective threshold is met—meaning multiple Kalshi markets can resolve Yes simultaneously (e.g., if Edmonton wins 4-1, both 'Edmonton >2.5' and 'Edmonton >1.5' resolve Yes). Polymarket's spread and moneyline are mutually exclusive by design. Verify your hedge logic before deploying capital across both platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Four Yes/No markets keyed to goal-margin thresholds: Edmonton >2.5 goals, Vegas >1.5 goals, Edmonton >1.5 goals, Vegas >2.5 goals. All resolve Yes if condition is met; all resolve No otherwise. Non-standard structure creates overlapping Yes outcomes and does not align with conventional sports betting spreads.
- Polymarket: Moneyline (Oilers vs. Golden Knights winner), two spreads (Golden Knights -1.5 and Oilers -1.5, each resolving to team name if margin ≥2 goals), and four totals (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 combined goals). Standard sportsbook market structure with mutually exclusive outcomes per market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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