TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Total volume:
$98,659
Volume 24h:
$3,653
311%
Liquidity:
$279,744
1%
Open interest:
$42,910
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether o1's governance token will achieve specific Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) thresholds one day after its public launch. The group consists of eight linked markets across two platforms, each testing a different FDV floor ($100M, $200M, $300M, $400M, $500M, $700M, $1B) to establish the token's post-launch valuation range.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Predict use identical resolution criteria, timing (4:00 PM ET one day after launch), FDV calculation methodology (total supply × price), and launch validity requirements (active public transferability and tradeability).
Primary resolution logic:
Most liquid price source available for o1 governance token at resolution timestampCore resolution logic:
- Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to qualify as a launch
- FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
- Market resolves YES if FDV exceeds the specified threshold; NO if FDV is at or below threshold
- If o1 does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves NO
- Resolution uses the most liquid price source available at the resolution timestamp
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- No Launch by Deadline: If o1 fails to launch a governance token with active public transferability and tradeability by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to NO regardless of any subsequent launch or announcement.
- Launch Timing Ambiguity: If launch occurs late on a calendar day, 4:00 PM ET resolution occurs the following calendar day. If launch occurs early morning, 4:00 PM ET resolution occurs that same calendar day.
- Illiquid or Restricted Trading: Token must be actively and publicly tradable. If trading is restricted, paused, or illiquid at resolution time, the market may face resolution challenges; most liquid source determination becomes critical.
- Multiple Price Sources: If multiple exchanges list o1 token with varying prices, resolution uses the most liquid source. Liquidity is determined by trading volume and bid-ask spread at 4:00 PM ET resolution time.
Timing:
Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day immediately following o1 governance token launch (when token becomes actively, publicly transferable and tradable). If no launch by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve NO.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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