TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Norwich City FC vs. Derby County FC
Volume:
$97,610
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Norwich City FC and Derby County FC will compete in an EFL Championship match on April 21, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Three mutually exclusive outcomes are possible: Norwich win, Derby win, or draw.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market structure is logically incoherent: all three outcome markets (Tie, Norwich win, Derby win) resolve YES simultaneously, making it impossible to determine a single winner. Polymarket markets are mutually exclusive and resolvable.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi markets in this group entirely. They violate basic mutual exclusivity — you cannot simultaneously win bets on all three outcomes. Polymarket offers three properly exclusive markets where exactly one resolves YES.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive binary markets: Norwich Win (YES/NO), Draw (YES/NO), Derby Win (YES/NO). Exactly one outcome occurs; exactly one market resolves YES. Resolution source is official EFL statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion. Postponement keeps markets open; cancellation with no makeup resolves Draw to YES, others to NO.
- Kalshi: Three separate YES/NO markets, each stating 'If [outcome] occurs, then resolve to Yes.' All three markets resolve YES if any outcome occurs, creating logical impossibility. No cancellation or postponement rules provided. Quote: 'If Tie wins... then resolves to Yes. If Norwich wins... then resolves to Yes. If Derby wins... then resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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