TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Norway vs. Switzerland
Volume:
$952,382
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Tuesday, March 31, 2026 between Norway and Switzerland.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory and unresolvable: all three outcome markets (Norway win, Tie, Switzerland win) are specified to resolve YES, making it impossible for exactly one outcome to occur. Polymarket uses standard binary logic where each outcome market resolves independently based on the match result, creating a fundamental incompatibility in settlement methodology.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's markets in this group — they contain a logical error that makes settlement impossible. Polymarket's three markets (Norway win, Switzerland win, draw) are standard and resolvable. If you hold Kalshi positions, escalate to the platform for clarification before the March 31, 2026 match.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi specifies that all three outcome markets resolve to YES regardless of the actual match result. The rules state 'If Norway wins... then the market resolves to Yes', 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes', and 'If Switzerland wins... then the market resolves to Yes', creating a logical impossibility where every outcome is marked YES simultaneously. This contradicts basic settlement principles.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket uses standard binary resolution logic with three separate markets. The draw market resolves YES only if the match ends in a draw, otherwise NO. The Norway win market resolves YES only if Norway wins, otherwise NO. The Switzerland win market resolves YES only if Switzerland wins, otherwise NO. Exactly one of these three will resolve YES based on the actual match outcome. Resolution source is FIFA official statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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