TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho State Bengals
Volume:
$69,070
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
A men's college basketball game between Northern Arizona Lumberjacks and Idaho State Bengals scheduled for March 7, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. Markets cover moneyline (winner), point spread outcomes, and total points over/under thresholds across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses a granular point-differential ladder with 22 binary Yes/No markets, while Polymarket uses standard sportsbook moneyline, spread, and total markets. The two platforms measure the same game but structure outcomes fundamentally differently, creating a portfolio vs. mutually-exclusive resolution model.Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi as a point-spread ladder where multiple markets resolve Yes from a single game outcome. Polymarket's markets are mutually exclusive within each category (moneyline, spread, total). Cross-platform arbitrage requires mapping Kalshi's threshold combinations to Polymarket's fixed spreads and moneyline odds. Focus on whether the combined Kalshi Yes probabilities align with Polymarket's implied probability distribution.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 22 binary markets, each with a specific point-differential threshold. Markets resolve Yes if the threshold is crossed (e.g., Idaho St. wins by more than 4.5 points, or Northern Arizona wins by more than 2.5 points). A single game result triggers multiple Yes resolutions across different thresholds. Example: If Northern Arizona wins 75-72 (+3), Markets 3, 10, 14, 15, 16 all resolve Yes.
- Polymarket: Four distinct market types: (1) Moneyline—Northern Arizona or Idaho State wins; (2) Spread at -4.5—Idaho State Yes if wins by 5+, otherwise Northern Arizona; (3) Spread at -5.5—Idaho State Yes if wins by 6+, otherwise Northern Arizona; (4) Three total markets at 141.5, 142.5, 143.5 thresholds. Each market has exactly one outcome per game result.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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