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Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho State Bengals
kalshi
polymarket

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho State Bengals

Volume:
$69,070

Idaho St. wins by over 4.5 Points

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 8, 2026

Closed: Mar 7, 10:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Idaho St. wins by over 4.5 Points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,605
N/A
N/A
$6,031
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$891
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Idaho St. wins by over 5.5 Points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,262
N/A
N/A
$2,220
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Idaho St. wins by over 7.5 Points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,185
N/A
N/A
$1,175
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Idaho St. wins by over 2.5 Points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,106
N/A
N/A
$866
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Idaho St. wins by over 1.5 Points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$854
N/A
N/A
$725
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -5.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$375
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Idaho St. wins by over 20.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,005
N/A
N/A
$15,786
Settled
No
polymarket

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho State Bengals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,248
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Idaho St. wins by over 14.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,509
N/A
N/A
$9,972
Settled
No
kalshi

Idaho St. wins by over 17.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,105
N/A
N/A
$2,952
Settled
No
kalshi

Idaho St. wins by over 10.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,958
N/A
N/A
$1,521
Settled
No
kalshi

Idaho St. wins by over 8.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,363
N/A
N/A
$1,102
Settled
No
kalshi

Idaho St. wins by over 11.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$882
N/A
N/A
$565
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 141.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$685
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Northern Arizona wins by over 8.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$452
N/A
N/A
$452
Settled
No
kalshi

Northern Arizona wins by over 20.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$422
N/A
N/A
$422
Settled
No
kalshi

Northern Arizona wins by over 1.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$422
N/A
N/A
$422
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 143.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$376
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 142.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$297
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Northern Arizona wins by over 2.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$291
N/A
N/A
$291
Settled
No
kalshi

Northern Arizona wins by over 5.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$276
N/A
N/A
$276
Settled
No
kalshi

Northern Arizona wins by over 4.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$251
N/A
N/A
$251
Settled
No
kalshi

Northern Arizona wins by over 17.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$250
N/A
N/A
$250
Settled
No
kalshi

Northern Arizona wins by over 14.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$250
N/A
N/A
$250
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 28

Description

A men's college basketball game between Northern Arizona Lumberjacks and Idaho State Bengals scheduled for March 7, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. Markets cover moneyline (winner), point spread outcomes, and total points over/under thresholds across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses a granular point-differential ladder with 22 binary Yes/No markets, while Polymarket uses standard sportsbook moneyline, spread, and total markets. The two platforms measure the same game but structure outcomes fundamentally differently, creating a portfolio vs. mutually-exclusive resolution model.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi as a point-spread ladder where multiple markets resolve Yes from a single game outcome. Polymarket's markets are mutually exclusive within each category (moneyline, spread, total). Cross-platform arbitrage requires mapping Kalshi's threshold combinations to Polymarket's fixed spreads and moneyline odds. Focus on whether the combined Kalshi Yes probabilities align with Polymarket's implied probability distribution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 22 binary markets, each with a specific point-differential threshold. Markets resolve Yes if the threshold is crossed (e.g., Idaho St. wins by more than 4.5 points, or Northern Arizona wins by more than 2.5 points). A single game result triggers multiple Yes resolutions across different thresholds. Example: If Northern Arizona wins 75-72 (+3), Markets 3, 10, 14, 15, 16 all resolve Yes.
  • Polymarket: Four distinct market types: (1) Moneyline—Northern Arizona or Idaho State wins; (2) Spread at -4.5—Idaho State Yes if wins by 5+, otherwise Northern Arizona; (3) Spread at -5.5—Idaho State Yes if wins by 6+, otherwise Northern Arizona; (4) Three total markets at 141.5, 142.5, 143.5 thresholds. Each market has exactly one outcome per game result.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.