TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils (W)
Volume:
$472,845
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the women's college basketball game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils scheduled for February 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. The markets track which team wins the game, with resolution based on the final score including overtime.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction: both possible outcomes (NC win and Duke win) are stated to resolve to Yes, which is impossible in a binary market structure. Polymarket uses standard categorical resolution (team name). These cannot be reconciled without clarification of Kalshi's actual intent.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are equivalent. Kalshi's logic as stated is unresolvable. Contact Kalshi support to clarify whether this is a data entry error, or whether the market is actually structured as a Yes/No on game completion rather than winner selection. Only trade Polymarket's version with confidence until Kalshi's contradiction is resolved.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Binary Yes/No structure with logical error: states both NC win and Duke win resolve to Yes. Quote: 'If North Carolina wins...resolves to Yes. If Duke wins...resolves to Yes.' This violates binary market logic.
- Polymarket: Categorical resolution to winning team name. NC win resolves to 'North Carolina Tar Heels', Duke win resolves to 'Duke Blue Devils'. Includes postponement (market stays open) and cancellation (50-50 split) edge cases.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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