TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
NL: Fribourg-Gotteron vs. Davos
Description
In the upcoming NL game, scheduled for April 24 at 2:00PM ET: If Fribourg-Gotteron win, the market will resolve to "Fribourg-Gotteron". If Davos win, the market will resolve to "Davos". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: it resolves YES for both possible outcomes (HC Davos win OR Fribourg Gottéron win), making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly specifies binary outcomes (one team wins, the other loses).Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. The resolution logic guarantees YES regardless of game outcome, which violates basic prediction market principles. Polymarket's binary structure is the only valid market in this group.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary match outcome: resolves to 'Fribourg-Gotteron' if they win, 'Davos' if they win. Includes edge cases for postponement (market remains open) and cancellation (50-50 split). Final score includes overtime and shootouts.
- Kalshi: CRITICAL FLAW: States 'If HC Davos wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Fribourg Gottéron wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' Both outcomes resolve YES, creating a logical impossibility where the market cannot resolve NO under any circumstance.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.