TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
NL: Fribourg-Gotteron vs. Davos
Description
In the upcoming NL game, scheduled for April 20 at 2:00PM ET: If Fribourg-Gotteron win, the market will resolve to "Fribourg-Gotteron". If Davos win, the market will resolve to "Davos". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: both outcomes (Fribourg Gottéron wins OR HC Davos wins) resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly specifies mutually exclusive outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. The resolution logic is broken—it resolves Yes regardless of which team wins, creating an arbitrage trap. Stick to Polymarket for this event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Clear binary logic: market resolves to 'Fribourg-Gotteron' if they win, or 'Davos' if Davos wins. Exactly one outcome occurs. Includes proper edge cases for postponement (market stays open) and cancellation (50-50 split).
- Kalshi: Logical contradiction in resolution rules: 'If Fribourg Gottéron wins...then resolves to Yes' AND 'If HC Davos wins...then resolves to Yes'. Both mutually exclusive outcomes map to the same resolution (Yes), making it impossible to determine a correct settlement.
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