TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC - Halftime Result
Volume:
$3,578
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the halftime result of the Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC match scheduled for March 4, 2026 in the English Premier League. Markets track whether Newcastle leads, Manchester United leads, or the teams are tied after 45 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory: it states that all three mutually exclusive halftime outcomes (Newcastle win, Manchester United win, tie) resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable. Polymarket uses three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive resolution paths.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's version of this market without clarification from the platform. The market as written cannot distinguish between outcomes. Polymarket's three-market structure is the only logically sound approach and should be used as the settlement standard.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Single market with three resolution rules, all leading to Yes. Logically incoherent. Key Quote: 'If Newcastle is the winner... then the market resolves to Yes. If Manchester United is the winner... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie is the result... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets (Newcastle leading Yes/No, Manchester United leading Yes/No, Draw Yes/No) with mutually exclusive outcomes. Logically coherent. Key Quote: 'If Manchester United FC wins within the first 45 minutes... this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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