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$1,441,166,947

406,422

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5

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Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC - Halftime Result
kalshi
polymarket

Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC - Halftime Result

Volume:
$3,578

Draw

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 5, 2026

Closed: Mar 4, 3:15 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$470
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$168
N/A
N/A
$168
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Newcastle United FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Newcastle

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$131
N/A
N/A
$131
Settled
No
kalshi

Manchester United

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,031
N/A
N/A
$917
Settled
No
polymarket

Manchester United FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$554
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the halftime result of the Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC match scheduled for March 4, 2026 in the English Premier League. Markets track whether Newcastle leads, Manchester United leads, or the teams are tied after 45 minutes plus stoppage time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory: it states that all three mutually exclusive halftime outcomes (Newcastle win, Manchester United win, tie) resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable. Polymarket uses three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive resolution paths.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi's version of this market without clarification from the platform. The market as written cannot distinguish between outcomes. Polymarket's three-market structure is the only logically sound approach and should be used as the settlement standard.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Single market with three resolution rules, all leading to Yes. Logically incoherent. Key Quote: 'If Newcastle is the winner... then the market resolves to Yes. If Manchester United is the winner... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie is the result... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets (Newcastle leading Yes/No, Manchester United leading Yes/No, Draw Yes/No) with mutually exclusive outcomes. Logically coherent. Key Quote: 'If Manchester United FC wins within the first 45 minutes... this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.