TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
New York Red Bulls vs. FC Cincinnati
Volume:
$425,042
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, April 4, 2026 between New York Red Bulls and FC Cincinnati.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Red Bulls win, Draw, Cincinnati win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines a single market that resolves YES for all three possible outcomes, making Kalshi's market logically incoherent and fundamentally unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market. Polymarket's three binary markets are coherent and mutually exclusive — exactly one will resolve YES. Kalshi's single market claims to resolve YES if Cincinnati wins, if a tie occurs, or if New York wins, which is logically impossible since one outcome must occur. This is a critical data integrity failure on Kalshi's side.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard sports betting logic: Polymarket offers three separate binary markets covering all possible outcomes (Red Bulls win, Draw, Cincinnati win). Exactly one will resolve YES based on the final match result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Resolution source is official MLS statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion. Quote: 'If New York Red Bulls wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi presents a single market with three resolution conditions that collectively cover all possible match outcomes, claiming the market resolves YES if Cincinnati wins, if a tie occurs, OR if New York wins. This creates a logical contradiction where the market would resolve YES regardless of the actual result, making it fundamentally unresolvable. Quote: 'If Cincinnati wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If New York wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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