TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati
Volume:
$593,071
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Wednesday, April 22, 2026 between New York City FC and FC Cincinnati.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market structure is logically incoherent: all three possible match outcomes (NYCFC win, draw, Cincinnati win) resolve to YES, making the market unresolvable and contradicting the binary nature of prediction markets. Polymarket uses three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive resolution logic.Hero Tip:
Avoid the Kalshi market entirely—it is fundamentally broken. On Polymarket, treat the three markets as a complete partition: exactly one will resolve YES and two will resolve NO. Arbitrage is impossible due to Kalshi's logical failure.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets covering all possible outcomes: NYCFC win resolves YES only if NYCFC wins; Draw resolves YES only if match ends in a draw; Cincinnati win resolves YES only if Cincinnati wins. Exactly one market resolves YES. Quote: 'If New York City FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
- Kalshi: Single market with three resolution conditions, all mapping to YES: 'If New York City wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Cincinnati wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility where every possible match outcome triggers a YES resolution, leaving no NO resolution path.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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