TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
New York City FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC
Volume:
$41,764
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Major League Soccer match between New York City FC (home) and Colorado Rapids SC scheduled for March 14, 2026. Markets span total goals scored (over/under thresholds) and match outcome (win/loss/draw), all measured within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi offers multiple total goals thresholds (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5) while Polymarket offers outcome-based markets (win/loss/draw). Both measure the same 90-minute window plus stoppage time, but they are fundamentally different market types (goal volume vs. match result).Hero Tip:
These are not contradictory—they measure different things. Treat Kalshi's four markets as separate SKUs with a natural hierarchy: if >3.5 resolves Yes, then >2.5 and >1.5 also resolve Yes. Polymarket's outcome markets are independent. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible only if you are comparing outcome-derived goal counts (e.g., a 2-1 result implies >1.5 and >2.5 on Kalshi, and a win on Polymarket). No settlement conflict exists.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Four total goals over/under markets at thresholds 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5. All measure combined Colorado + NYCFC goals in 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Each resolves Yes if the threshold is exceeded. Quote: 'If Colorado and New York City collectively score more than [X] total goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three outcome markets: NYCFC win, Colorado win, and draw. Each resolves based on the final match result (not goal volume) within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Postponement keeps markets open; cancellation resolves draw to Yes, others to No. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve [to Yes for draw, No for win markets].'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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