TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.6b

24H VOL:

$283,259,638

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,235,549,422

505,521

Markets across

13,661

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,892

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

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Trending

Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Mar 10, 2026, 2:53 PM EST - Jan 1, 2028, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$10,024
Volume 24h:
$89
96%
Liquidity:
$21,372
103%
Open interest:
$791
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This event group tracks whether Neutrl's governance token will achieve specific Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) thresholds on the calendar day following its public launch. The group consists of 8 binary markets across two platforms, each testing a different FDV floor ($20M, $50M, $100M, $200M, $300M, $500M, $700M, $1B), with resolution occurring at 4:00 PM ET one day after the token becomes actively tradable.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms apply identical FDV calculation methodology, timing definition (4:00 PM ET one day post-launch), launch qualification criteria (active public transferability and tradeability), price source selection (most liquid available), and deadline (December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET).

Primary resolution logic:

Most liquid price source available for Neutrl governance token at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch; official Neutrl social channels (https://x.com/Neutrl) for launch confirmation.

Core resolution logic:

  • Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched
  • FDV = Total Token Supply × Token Price at 4:00 PM ET on calendar day following launch
  • Resolution occurs at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the day after launch (not 24 hours after a specific timestamp, but the next calendar day at that time)
  • Price source is the most liquid market available at resolution time
  • Market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified threshold; No if FDV is at or below threshold
  • If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves No

Edge cases & Clarifications:

  • Launch timing ambiguity: If token becomes tradable late on Day 0, resolution still occurs at 4:00 PM ET on Day 1 (calendar day following launch), not 24 hours after initial tradeability. This ensures consistent timing across all markets regardless of launch hour.
  • Multiple price sources: If multiple exchanges list the token with different prices, the most liquid source (typically highest volume) determines the price used for FDV calculation. Platforms should pre-identify the primary exchange or aggregation method.
  • Supply uncertainty: FDV calculation requires accurate total token supply at resolution time. If supply is variable or contested, resolution may require official Neutrl documentation or smart contract verification.
  • No launch by deadline: If Neutrl does not launch a governance token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to No regardless of any other factors.
  • Token delisting or trading halt: If the token is delisted or trading halts before 4:00 PM ET on Day 1, resolution uses the last available price from the most liquid source before the halt.

Timing:

Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the date on which Neutrl's governance token becomes actively, publicly transferable and tradable. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve No.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.