Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Polymarket and Kalshi both resolve based on the official match outcome (win, loss, or draw) after 90 minutes plus stoppage time on March 27, 2026, with identical handling of postponements and cancellations.
Primary resolution logic:
Official statistics from FIFA or the governing body/event organizers; if unavailable within 2 hours post-match, credible reporting consensus may be used.
Core resolution logic:
Exactly one of three mutually exclusive outcomes will occur: Netherlands wins, Norway wins, or the match ends in a draw.
On Polymarket, three separate binary markets resolve: one YES if draw, one YES if Norway wins, one YES if Netherlands wins; all others resolve NO.
On Kalshi, one ternary market resolves YES for whichever outcome occurs (Tie, Norway win, or Netherlands win).
Resolution scope is limited to the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties are excluded.
If the match is postponed, both platforms keep markets open until completion.
If the match is canceled with no make-up game, Polymarket's draw market resolves YES and the win markets resolve NO; Kalshi's market cannot resolve under this scenario (logical gap, but both platforms treat cancellation identically in intent).
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Match Postponement: If the match scheduled for March 27, 2026 is postponed, both platforms keep their markets open until the rescheduled match is completed. Resolution occurs on the actual match date, not the original date.
Match Cancellation Without Make-Up: If the match is canceled entirely with no make-up game, Polymarket resolves the draw market to YES and both win markets to NO. Kalshi's market structure does not explicitly address this scenario, but the intent is identical: no winner is declared.
Resolution Source Fallback: Both platforms use official FIFA/governing body statistics as the primary source. If official statistics are not published within 2 hours after the match concludes, both platforms permit resolution based on consensus of credible reporting.
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately upon official publication of the final match result by FIFA or the governing body. If official statistics are unavailable within 2 hours post-match, resolution may proceed based on credible reporting consensus.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.