TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nepal vs. Hong Kong SAR
Volume:
$472,470
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Thursday, March 26, 2026 between Nepal and Hong Kong SAR.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory and unresolvable: all three outcomes (Nepal win, Tie, Hong Kong win) are specified to resolve to YES, making it impossible to determine a single resolution. Polymarket provides three separate, mutually exclusive markets with clear resolution logic for each outcome.Hero Tip:
Avoid trading on Kalshi's markets in this group — they contain a fatal logical error where every possible match outcome resolves to YES, making settlement impossible. Trade only on Polymarket's three distinct markets (Nepal win, Hong Kong win, Draw), which have coherent, mutually exclusive resolution criteria.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Contains a logical contradiction. All three market conditions state 'then the market resolves to Yes' — meaning Nepal win resolves YES, Tie resolves YES, and Hong Kong win resolves YES. This makes the market unresolvable because exactly one outcome will occur, but the rules assign YES to all three. Key quote: 'If Nepal wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Hong Kong wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with sound resolution logic: Provides three separate, mutually exclusive markets — one for Nepal win (YES if Nepal wins, NO otherwise), one for Hong Kong win (YES if Hong Kong wins, NO otherwise), and one for Draw (YES if draw, NO otherwise). Exactly one market will resolve YES based on the actual match outcome. Key quote: 'If Nepal wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.