TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Nepal vs. Hong Kong SAR
kalshi
polymarket

Nepal vs. Hong Kong SAR

Volume:
$472,470

Draw (Nepal vs. Hong Kong SAR)

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 26, 2026

Closed: Mar 26, 8:15 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Draw (Nepal vs. Hong Kong SAR)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$176,319
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tie

View
32%
Yes 32¢No 68¢
—
N/A
$25,020
N/A
N/A
$16,622
Settled
No
kalshi

Hong Kong

View
44%
Yes 44¢No 56¢
—
N/A
$26,391
N/A
N/A
$10,308
Settled
No
polymarket

Hong Kong SAR

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$125,181
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Nepal

View
24%
Yes 24¢No 76¢
—
N/A
$12,401
N/A
N/A
$5,668
Settled
No
polymarket

Nepal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$107,157
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Thursday, March 26, 2026 between Nepal and Hong Kong SAR.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory and unresolvable: all three outcomes (Nepal win, Tie, Hong Kong win) are specified to resolve to YES, making it impossible to determine a single resolution. Polymarket provides three separate, mutually exclusive markets with clear resolution logic for each outcome.Hero tip: Avoid trading on Kalshi's markets in this group — they contain a fatal logical error where every possible match outcome resolves to YES, making settlement impossible. Trade only on Polymarket's three distinct markets (Nepal win, Hong Kong win, Draw), which have coherent, mutually exclusive resolution criteria.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Contains a logical contradiction. All three market conditions state 'then the market resolves to Yes' — meaning Nepal win resolves YES, Tie resolves YES, and Hong Kong win resolves YES. This makes the market unresolvable because exactly one outcome will occur, but the rules assign YES to all three. Key quote: 'If Nepal wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Hong Kong wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Aligned with sound resolution logic: Provides three separate, mutually exclusive markets — one for Nepal win (YES if Nepal wins, NO otherwise), one for Hong Kong win (YES if Hong Kong wins, NO otherwise), and one for Draw (YES if draw, NO otherwise). Exactly one market will resolve YES based on the actual match outcome. Key quote: 'If Nepal wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.