TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
NCAA Tournament: Team to make Quarterfinals
Volume:
$3,170,013
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets resolve to 'Yes' if a specified NCAA Division I men's basketball team qualifies for the Elite Eight round of the 2026 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. The Elite Eight consists of the final 8 teams remaining after the Regional Finals (Sweet Sixteen). Resolution is based on official NCAA tournament results and credible reporting of tournament advancement.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution thresholds. Kalshi resolves YES if ANY of 142 listed teams reaches the Elite Eight (the Quarterfinals), while Polymarket resolves YES only if a SPECIFIC single team advances to the Elite Eight. This creates a logical contradiction: Kalshi's market will almost certainly resolve YES (since 8 teams must reach the Elite Eight), while Polymarket's individual team markets resolve YES only for that one team.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Kalshi and Polymarket markets in this group. On Kalshi, the event is nearly certain (one of 142 teams will reach the Elite Eight). On Polymarket, each individual team market is a binary bet on that specific team's advancement. Betting YES on Kalshi and NO on a Polymarket team is not a hedge—it is two independent bets with opposite certainty profiles.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi uses an OR-logic aggregation across 142 teams. The market resolves YES if ANY single team from the list qualifies for the Elite Eight. The resolution rules state 'If [Team X] qualifies for the 2026 Men's March Madness Elite Eight, then the market resolves to Yes' repeated 142 times with no exclusivity clause. Since exactly 8 teams must reach the Elite Eight in any valid tournament, this market will resolve YES with near certainty.
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket uses individual team-specific resolution. Each market is a standalone binary: 'Will [Team] advance to the Quarterfinals?' resolves YES only if that specific named team reaches the Elite Eight, and NO if that team is eliminated or the tournament is cancelled/postponed after April 20, 2026. Each Polymarket market is independent and mutually exclusive with other team markets in the group.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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