TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
NASCAR: Daytona 500 winner
Volume:
$13,153,396
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets on which driver will win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Daytona 500, scheduled for February 15, 2026. The group contains 60 individual binary markets, each asking whether a specific driver (or placeholder driver code) will win the race, plus one catch-all market for any other winner.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Polymarket provides complete, detailed resolution rules with clear edge case handling and a single authoritative source (NASCAR). Kalshi provides no rules data, creating an assumption of consistency with industry standard NASCAR resolution practices. Both platforms reference the same event (2026 Daytona 500, February 15, 2026) and the same authoritative source (NASCAR official results).
Primary resolution logic:
NASCAR official final results published at https://www.nascar.com/ following race conclusionCore resolution logic:
- Exactly one driver wins the 2026 Daytona 500; that driver's market resolves to Yes, all other named driver markets resolve to No
- Resolution is based on NASCAR's published final results, including any time penalties or official adjustments applied at time of publication
- Post-publication disqualifications or result changes do not affect market resolution
- Podium ceremony timing is irrelevant; only NASCAR's official final results determine the outcome
- If a named driver becomes ineligible per NASCAR Cup Series rules (disqualification, withdrawal), that driver's market resolves to No
- The catch-all market (another driver) resolves to Yes only if the race winner is not among the 59 named drivers listed
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Race Cancellation or Postponement: If the 2026 Daytona 500 is cancelled, postponed past March 1, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or no winner is declared within that timeframe, all markets in the group resolve to Other
- Driver Disqualification or Withdrawal: If a listed driver becomes ineligible per NASCAR Cup Series rules before or during the race, that driver's corresponding market resolves to No
- Post-Publication Result Changes: Any disqualifications or result changes made after NASCAR publishes official final results do not affect market resolution
- Placeholder Driver Codes: Markets referencing placeholder driver codes (Driver A through Driver O) will resolve based on the identity of the actual driver assigned to that code at race time, or to No if no driver is assigned or the assignment becomes invalid
- Mutual Exclusivity: Exactly one market in the group will resolve to Yes (the actual race winner); all other driver-specific markets resolve to No, and the catch-all market resolves Yes only if the winner is not among the 59 named drivers
Timing:
Resolution occurs after NASCAR publishes official final results following the conclusion of the 2026 Daytona 500 race on February 15, 2026. Markets must resolve by March 1, 2026 11:59 PM ET or default to Other.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.