TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Merrimack College Warriors (W)
Volume:
$8,330
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a women's college basketball game between Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers and Merrimack College Warriors scheduled for March 7, 2026 at 1:30 PM ET at Merrimack. The markets across platforms are designed to resolve based on the final outcome of the game, with provisions for postponement and cancellation scenarios.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic is internally contradictory: it states both possible outcomes (Merrimack win and Mount St. Mary's win) resolve to Yes, which violates binary market semantics. Polymarket uses standard categorical resolution (winner name). These cannot be reconciled without clarification of Kalshi's actual contract.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are equivalent. Kalshi's logic as stated is unresolvable. Contact Kalshi support to confirm whether the contract is actually a Yes/No on a specific team, or if the source data contains an error. Polymarket's structure is clear and tradeable. Treat Polymarket as the reliable reference until Kalshi's contract is verified.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Both outcomes (Merrimack win and Mount St. Mary's win) are stated to resolve to Yes. This is logically impossible for a binary market and suggests either a data transcription error or a malformed contract. Key Quote: 'If Merrimack wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Mount St. Mary's wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Categorical resolution: market resolves to the name of the winning team. Includes explicit provisions for postponement (market stays open) and cancellation (50-50 split). Key Quote: 'If the Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers win, the market will resolve to Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers. If the Merrimack College Warriors win, the market will resolve to Merrimack College Warriors.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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