TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Mirassol FC vs. Red Bull Bragantino
Volume:
$77,463
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Brazil Série A game, scheduled for Sunday, April 5, 2026 between Mirassol FC and Red Bull Bragantino.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi settles on goal-differential thresholds (markets resolve YES if either team wins by >1.5 or >2.5 goals), while Polymarket settles on match outcomes (Mirassol win, Bragantino win, or draw). The platforms use fundamentally different resolution logic and cannot produce aligned outcomes.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on goal margin (a team winning by 2+ or 3+ goals). If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on match winner or draw. A 2-1 Mirassol victory resolves YES on Polymarket (Mirassol win) but NO on Kalshi (neither team wins by >1.5 goals). Conversely, a 3-0 Bragantino win resolves YES on both platforms but for different stated reasons. Arbitrage or hedge across platforms carefully.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves YES if either team wins by more than 1.5 goals OR more than 2.5 goals. The market conflates two separate goal-differential thresholds into a single YES outcome. Key quote: 'If Bragantino wins by more than 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Bragantino wins by more than 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers three separate binary markets: one for Mirassol win, one for Bragantino win, and one for draw. Each resolves YES or NO based on the final match outcome (winner or draw) within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Key quote: 'If Mirassol FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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