TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Mirassol FC vs. Red Bull Bragantino
kalshi
polymarket

Mirassol FC vs. Red Bull Bragantino

Volume:
$77,463

Red Bull Bragantino

 - Polymarket

Red Bull Bragantino - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 6, 2026

Closed: Apr 5, 7:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Red Bull Bragantino

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$31,103
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mirassol FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,589
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Mirassol FC vs. Red Bull Bragantino)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,246
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Mirassol wins by over 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
No
kalshi

Mirassol wins by over 1.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$210
N/A
N/A
$210
Settled
No
kalshi

Bragantino wins by over 1.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
No
kalshi

Bragantino wins by over 2.5 goals

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event is for the upcoming Brazil Série A game, scheduled for Sunday, April 5, 2026 between Mirassol FC and Red Bull Bragantino.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi settles on goal-differential thresholds (markets resolve YES if either team wins by >1.5 or >2.5 goals), while Polymarket settles on match outcomes (Mirassol win, Bragantino win, or draw). The platforms use fundamentally different resolution logic and cannot produce aligned outcomes.Hero tip: If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on goal margin (a team winning by 2+ or 3+ goals). If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on match winner or draw. A 2-1 Mirassol victory resolves YES on Polymarket (Mirassol win) but NO on Kalshi (neither team wins by >1.5 goals). Conversely, a 3-0 Bragantino win resolves YES on both platforms but for different stated reasons. Arbitrage or hedge across platforms carefully.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves YES if either team wins by more than 1.5 goals OR more than 2.5 goals. The market conflates two separate goal-differential thresholds into a single YES outcome. Key quote: 'If Bragantino wins by more than 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Bragantino wins by more than 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers three separate binary markets: one for Mirassol win, one for Bragantino win, and one for draw. Each resolves YES or NO based on the final match outcome (winner or draw) within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Key quote: 'If Mirassol FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.