TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Minnesota United FC vs. Portland Timbers
Volume:
$474,229
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, April 18, 2026 between Minnesota United FC and Portland Timbers.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Minnesota win, Draw, Portland win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three separate YES/NO markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously for the same match outcome. This creates a logical contradiction: under Kalshi rules, all three markets resolve YES for any match result, making them non-predictive.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi markets in this group entirely—they are logically broken and will all resolve YES regardless of outcome. Polymarket's three-way structure is the only coherent framework for this event. If you must trade, use Polymarket only.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive binary markets covering all possible outcomes (Minnesota win YES/NO, Draw YES/NO, Portland win YES/NO). Exactly one market resolves YES based on the 90-minute result. Quote: 'If Minnesota United FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.' The draw market explicitly states: 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
- Kalshi: Three separate markets phrased as 'If [outcome] wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' Each market independently resolves YES if its condition is met. This means for any single match result, all three markets simultaneously resolve YES (e.g., if Minnesota wins 2-1, all three Kalshi markets resolve YES because Minnesota won, Portland did not win, and it was not a tie—but the phrasing structure treats each as independent YES conditions). Quote: 'If Minnesota wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Portland wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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