TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Millonarios FC vs. CA Boston River
Volume:
$340,221
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Copa Sudamericana game, scheduled for Wednesday, April 15, 2026 between Millonarios FC and CA Boston River.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Millonarios win, Boston River win, draw) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three separate YES/NO markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously if the game completes. This creates a fundamental logical contradiction: under Kalshi's structure, all three markets would resolve YES for any completed match outcome, making the markets non-informative and unresolvable as stated.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across both platforms assuming equivalent exposure. Polymarket's three markets function as a proper outcome partition (exactly one YES), while Kalshi's three markets appear to have a structural error in their resolution logic. If you hold positions on both platforms, clarify with each platform's support whether Kalshi intends a single YES outcome or if the rules are misstated. Kalshi's current wording guarantees all three markets resolve YES, which violates basic market design.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Aligned with intended market structure: Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one outcome (Millonarios win, Boston River win, or draw) occurs, and only the corresponding market resolves YES while the other two resolve NO. Key quote: 'If Millonarios FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' — applied separately to each of the three outcome markets, creating a proper partition.
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's three markets are structured as independent YES/NO markets with no mutual exclusivity clause. The rules state 'If Millonarios wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Boston River wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' Since exactly one of these three conditions must occur in any completed match, all three Kalshi markets will resolve YES simultaneously, rendering them logically incoherent and non-discriminative.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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