TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Volume:
$2,363,721
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
A men's college basketball game between the Michigan Wolverines and Iowa Hawkeyes scheduled for March 5, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET at Iowa. Markets cover the moneyline winner, point spread outcomes at multiple thresholds (-8.5, -9.5), and total points scored (Over/Under at 145.5, 146.5, and 147.5).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's moneyline market contains a logical contradiction: both possible outcomes (Iowa win and Michigan win) resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable as a binary prediction. This violates basic moneyline semantics and creates settlement ambiguity.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi moneyline. It cannot be settled meaningfully. Use Polymarket's moneyline (categorical: Michigan Wolverines or Iowa Hawkeyes) and all spread/total markets, which are logically sound and consistent across both platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Moneyline market resolves to Yes for both Iowa win and Michigan win outcomes. This is logically incoherent for a binary market. Quote: 'If Iowa wins...resolves to Yes. If Michigan wins...resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Moneyline market resolves categorically: Michigan Wolverines (if Michigan wins) or Iowa Hawkeyes (if Iowa wins). Spread markets resolve to team name based on margin threshold. Total markets resolve to Over/Under based on combined points. All logic is consistent and resolvable.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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