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Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC
kalshi
polymarket

Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC

Volume:
$370,194

Tie

 - Kalshi

Tie - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 27, 2026

Closed: Feb 27, 6:35 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$27,205
N/A
N/A
$22,324
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$22,244
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Adelaide

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$128,120
N/A
N/A
$106,973
Settled
No
kalshi

Melbourne Victory

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$74,155
N/A
N/A
$50,592
Settled
No
polymarket

Adelaide United FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,662
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Melbourne Victory FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$56,808
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the Australian A-League soccer match between Melbourne Victory FC and Adelaide United FC scheduled for February 27, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess the outcome within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, covering all three possible results: Melbourne Victory win, Adelaide United win, or draw.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket's draw market has asymmetric cancellation logic (resolves Yes if canceled) compared to its win markets (resolve No if canceled), while Kalshi treats all outcomes uniformly. This creates divergent settlement paths under game cancellation scenarios.Hero tip: If you are long the draw on Polymarket, a game cancellation is a winning outcome. If you are long either team to win on Polymarket, cancellation is a loss. On Kalshi, all three outcomes resolve Yes, so cancellation does not differentiate outcomes. Hedge accordingly if cancellation risk is material.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All three outcome markets (Melbourne win, Adelaide win, Tie) resolve to Yes if their respective outcome occurs. No differentiation on cancellation. Quote: 'If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three separate markets with asymmetric cancellation logic. Win markets (Melbourne, Adelaide) resolve No on cancellation; draw market resolves Yes on cancellation with no makeup. Quote: Draw market 'will resolve to Yes' on cancellation; win markets 'will resolve to No' on cancellation.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.