TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC
Volume:
$335,611
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Australia A-League game, scheduled for Sunday, April 12, 2026 between Melbourne City FC and Wellington Phoenix FC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket differ fundamentally in scope and resolution logic. Kalshi offers four separate markets on total goals scored (>1.5, >2.5, >3.5, >4.5), while Polymarket offers three binary markets on match outcome (Melbourne win, draw, Wellington win). These are distinct event types with no logical overlap.Hero Tip:
Kalshi markets settle on aggregate goal thresholds; Polymarket markets settle on match outcome (win/draw/loss). If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on goal volume; on Polymarket, you are betting on which team wins. These outcomes are independent—a high-scoring draw on Kalshi resolves YES for >1.5 and >2.5 goals, but on Polymarket resolves YES only for the draw market, not the Melbourne or Wellington win markets. Do not assume correlation between platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi settles on aggregate goal thresholds in a single match. Four separate markets resolve YES if total goals scored by both teams exceed 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, or 4.5 respectively, measured after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Key quote: 'If Wellington and Melbourne City collectively score more than [X] total goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket settles on match outcome (win/draw/loss) for each team independently. Three separate binary markets resolve based on whether Melbourne City wins, the match ends in a draw, or Wellington Phoenix wins, all measured within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Key quote: 'If Melbourne City FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.